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Il Weekend Nero di Chen

Saturday si sono tenute sull'isola le elezioni volte a rinnovare lo Yuan Legislativo , ossia il parlamento di Taiwan. Come ampiamente descritto da alcune agenzie di stampa e testate giornalistiche, la vittoria è andata a larga maggioranza al Kuomintang , il partito nazionalista.
L'imperiosa vittoria degli eredi di Chiang Kai-shiek ha avuto come conseguenza immediata le dimissioni da leader del Partito Democratico Progressista del Presidente uscente Chen Shui-bian .
In molti, sia a Taiwan che fuori, interpretano questo risultato come il trampolino di lancio di Ma Ying-jeou to win the presidential election scheduled for March 22, all this clearly to the detriment of the other candidate, Frank Hsieh .

What to add? This
: the formalization of the shift of the diplomatic offices of Malawi from Taipei to Beijing and recent statements by the newly elected Litokwa Tomeing (Chairman of Marshall Islands ) directed to follow the footsteps of her African counterpart.

This can be translated as a clear signal to the intentions towards independence by Chen that, in fact, resigned from the his position as party leaders.
And just two months from the appointment of key Taiwanese politics, the act of the President may appear as a sort of "Lay down your arms and we give up."

should not forget that in addition to the presidential vote in March is at stake also referendum (in fact independent) which will be specifically asked if the voting population use the name "Taiwan" in official documents or to continue with the old "Republic of China" .

Ultimately, then, everything seems to revolve around a few questions:

1. Ma Ying-jeou will take advantage of this momentum, or Frank Hsieh will be able to overturn the odds now?
2. The 23 million Taiwanese really want independence at any cost or prefer to postpone the problem when the waters are less stormy?

and Beijing?
Watch and wait. Continued
packages of Taiwanese allies , harsh words and warnings addressed by Washington independence and, last but not least, the economic power mainland China have confirmed Beijing slowly erodes the coasts of Taiwan without the need for the armed forces and seems closer to decisive steps towards the coveted unification, so that (despite the silence censoreo typical of dictatorial regimes) does not arise problems publish the results of the legislative website of its government, reveals that, in addition to Hong Kong , there are other places where the Chinese are invited to vote democratically.

Of course, this is because the victory of the Kuomintang is very positive for Beijing and the possible en plein- of March would be like manna from heaven.

Not that Ma Ying-jeou is in favor of a ' Anschluss , however, for China is always a better advocate of the submissive Status Quo not an advocate of independence turbulent , if only because the latter would not a few headaches in the year of Olympics . For the "harmonious" Hu Jintao , fewer problems there are, the better.

Certainly no one has yet put an end to this long history, and tantomento, is able to do so in the near future if not with the use of force.

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Si apre il Congresso del Partito Comunista Cinese

Today, in Beijing, was officially opened 17 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China . The event, a veritable crossroads of national politics, will last a week and will be followed with interest by all governments of the world.
course, the island of Taiwan will be heard every word spoken at the conference. In particular, they are the center of attention all the talk about the relationship between Beijing and Taipei .
It is precisely on the question of Strait which was dedicated passage of the opening speech of President Hu Jintao .

Unlike recent statements, however, in which was stated in no uncertain terms the willingness by Beijing to take seriously the ' use of force to quell any ambition of independence, today's occasion was simply talking about peaceful approach towards the island.

What causes this "turning point"?
You can make a few comments on the matter.

First keep in mind that these days China has the eyes of the international community on to himself. Declarations of war from the very first time would be irreconcilable with the proclamations strongly in favor of harmonious society, development of science-based international peace and . Especially a few days away from the turbulent events, not yet fully completed, in Myanmar.

Secondly, we must not forget that Beijing can not be bad publicity less than a year after the climax of the event 'was Hu : the 2008 Olympics , which is the international showcase that will show the world the whole Republic of China (with all its wealth, its victories and of course its contradictions)

Finally, it is also fair to say that, on this occasion, the statement has not been anticipated by one of several political moves that we have become accustomed to the President of Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian . In previous cases because Hu and other leaders of mainland China were faced with more or less strong utterances of the volcanic Chen pledged in recent months in office to push and support the candidature of party colleague Frank Hsieh, and then decided to pull out every possible card plays.

That said, you should make one last clarification: the "turning point" of Hu, which really is not your turn, assumes that Taiwan is arguably China (It is also clearly reinforced by the fact that the vast majority of international governments accept and endorse the policy of 'one China ), and that the reunification will take place by peaceful means if and only if there were to be effective kowtow to the leadership in Taipei. Whatever it is: the Kuomintang Ma Ying-jeou or PDP Frank Hsieh.

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Il referendum della discordia

With such a title, Tuesday, September 18 has been posted on Equilibri.net analysis signed on the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, more specifically, the article focuses on a particular Referendum.

Chen Shui-bian, President of the Island, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party and strong supporter of independence, wants to rally the people of Taiwan, and the means through referendum, to legitimize the application for entry the United Nations with the name of Taiwan.

Every year since 1993, officially asks to enter the island at the UN and systematically (as happened a few days ago) every year, this request is denied. On the basis of UN Resolution 2758 of 1971, as the island is Chinese territory and considered, although de facto independent it may seem, it is not de jure , as demonstrated the fact that, internationally, only a dozen countries recognize Taipei instead of Beijing.

So what is the news? Simple. For the first time, Taiwan tries to present itself with the official name of Taiwan, in fact, rather than with the ambiguous "Republic of China" , which can assume a symbolic and legal supremacy of the island on the mainland, heritage the historic conflict between the Kuomintang of Chiang Kai-shek and Communist Party of Mao Zedong .
All this confirms the absolute will to Taipei to be considered "foreign body" in Beijing and creating all'inedita possibility of the existence of two Chinas.

And the problems? Less simple. The proposal for a referendum to legitimize the entry of Taiwan to the United Nations (which is to be held concurrently with the presidential elections of March 2008) can cause problems relations between Beijing and Washington , forcing the two powers to confront a subject kept at bay (albeit with difficulty) for nearly sixty years.

How will they react and then the "big" in front of such a step (probably the prelude to a declaration of de jure independence )? The anti-secession law that ' National People's Congress of China has launched 14 March 2005 states that in the event of secession or declaration of independence, it will result in military action in Beijing on Taipei. At the same time, an American law of almost thirty years ago ( Taiwan Relations Act) provides some "friendship" and mutual protection between the U.S. and Taiwan, although there are references to the official recognition of Taipei.

That said, remember that for different reasons, China and the U.S. do not seem willing (and not even ready) to a frontal collision to decide on this skein Taiwan. If, on the Beijing come continuous and obvious references to Chinese sovereignty on the island, from Washington come admonitions and warnings to the initiative of Chen and some of its allies, considered to be too impulsive.
It is certain that the change of the status quo (in un senso o nell'altro) non piace a nessuno dei due colossi: l'indipendenza è malvista alla Zhongnanhai , mentre l'annessione disturberebbe la Casa Bianca .

Strano a dirsi, questa volta il destino è nelle mani di un "piccolo". Cosa succederebbe se Taipei dovesse muoversi verso un'eventuale dichiarazione di indipendenza?

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Le "spinte" indipendentiste

Recentemente Yao Chia-wen , il Presidente dello Yuan degli Esami (uno dei 5 Yuan upon which the organizational structure of the island of Taiwan), has released an interesting interview to Radical New Agency, where he discussed the issue of independence, you want to be part of the leadership and Taiwanese population.
The interview was published after the United Nations has rejected a proposal by President Chen Shui-bian , who asked for the entry of Taiwan within the international organization using the words Taiwan and consequently abandoning the historic designation Republic of China.

Below the comment of yours to that interview, also published on the pages of the New Radical Agency (1) :

"The thrust of President Chen Shui-bian towards independence, in the latter period with rafforzatasi proposal made to the United Nations , has raised the very interest of the international community in the Straits.
Personally, I do not know what this push be linked to the upcoming twin elections (and the President of the Legislative Yuan ) to help the candidate Frank Hsieh and all Party Democratico Progressista a governare per i prossimi quattro anni.
E' tuttavia innegabile il fatto che il Presidente Chen abbia da sempre focalizzato l'attenzione sull'argomento.
Certamente, come dice in parte il Presidente Yao Chia-wen , l'attuale situazione internazionale con la Guerra in Iraq (e aggiungerei anche in Afghanistan ) e la questione della Corea del Nord , ha dirottato le strategie del principale amico di Taiwan (gli Stati Uniti ) verso un rapporto più amichevole con Pechino .
Allo stesso modo, concordo Yao with the President in considering China braking from its current economic development and its internal balances to wage war against anyone. In addition, the next Olympic Games, a showcase for China too important to be thwarted by an act of force.
That said, do not forget the repeated references to the Beijing policy of One China whenever the opportunity arises (ie, in any bilateral meeting with other countries), symbolic statements which are primarily to strengthen the anti-secession law of March 14, 2005 and, secondly, the current restructuring of the military, particularly with respect to the marine sector.
the view that even ideological Taiwan enjoys the support of many Western democracies (you could also say all), it is clear that in terms of diplomacy is going the opposite. Let's not forget the advanced Chinese Africa and the current battle Caribbean to gain official recognition of the Central American islands. Further losses to Taiwan should be held in high esteem by the supporters of independence.
The current situation of ' Far East (i missili coreani, il rafforzamento militare di Cina e Giappone, gli equilibri indocinesi e nella regione indonesiana, ecc.) non permette passi avventati.
Il Presidente Yao Chia-wen ha giustamente riportato l'esempio di Danzica del 1939 per meglio identificare l' arrendevolezza europea . Concordo, ma prenderei in considerazione anche l'avvenimento di Sarajevo del 1914 , dove una piccola goccia ha fatto traboccare un grosso vaso. In entrambi i casi, la situazione era molto diversa dall'attuale, tuttavia vi possono essere delle similitudini alle quali fare riferimento. In un caso, la crescita di una potenza; nell'altro, gli equilibri sottili tra i vari attori presenti sul palcoscenico".

Come ho scritto al termine del commento sul sito della Nuova Agenzia Radicale, la questione di Taiwan è un tema molto importante, da tenere sotto attenta osservazione.

(1) Il sito internet della Nuova Agenzia Radicale è stato modificato. Attualmente non è più visibile la mia risposta.